Motherlode or Fools Gold ? 2 Things that will have you questioning the push for BC LNG

** updated below post Feb 20, 2020. CGL pipeline has applied for a federal loan to help build the pipeline.**

 

With Wetʼsuwetʼen supporter blockades and demonstrations ongoing, no one can miss the barrage of pro LNG industry advertising popping up everywhere heavily promoting Coastal GasLinks natural gas pipeline.

The Coastal GasLink pipeline begins in BC, ends in BC and if finished will transport natural gas to LNG Canada’s plant when its completed in approximately 2025. Industry groups and Premier Horgan have both said this project is critical for British Columbians and will bring prosperity and revenue into provincial coffers for decades. 

For the average, non political person, these ads – viewed without knowledge of global LNG market problems or how subsidized the industry is – do make it sound like the motherlode of all opportunities for BC.

But a deeper look at some industry reports I came across recently, really has me shaking my head at the public relations campaigns from the BC LNG Alliance and Resource Works. Even industry reports are transparent about the need for subsidies to even make LNG happen in BC.

This all won’t be sexy info for most people, admittedly. But British Columbians are on the hook for a lot when it comes to  LNG. And they should be asking why.

It’s of no news to anyone, least of all John Horgan, that the spot price of LNG right now is at a historical low.  There has been a glut of LNG flooding the market for some time, and due to a warmer winter than normal and China’s Covid-19 outbreak, it’s a bit of a nightmare for LNG exports right now. 

Prices are sitting around the $3.00 US per mmBTU in Asia, down from $20 six years ago. 

However alarming that is for gas producers, it isn’t the current price of LNG we need to worry about. LNG Canada’s plant won’t open until 2025, so it is the price of LNG in 2025 that analysts look towards as one factor in viability.

This is where it gets interesting. One would think that with LNG prices at rock bottom prices, there would be no where to go but up, and those with skin in the game will do anything to make you believe it will . After all, their jobs depend on it, to be blunt.

 

But a new report indicates the opposite in fact, that another glut in a few years will ensure prices stay low: 

…But while the glut is set to come to an end, which should lift rock-bottom spot prices, the race to give the green light for new projects has intensified, the analysts said. The winners in the next race would be low-cost producers with clear funding plans and some LNG service companies.

“Competition to sanction the next wave of LNG projects has intensified risking another glut in the mid-2020s,” Bernstein said.”The seeds of the next cycle are already being planted.”

“With a further 110 million tonnes per annum of potential projects the competition for market space will be intense,” Bernstein said.

That article should be read in full as it details other projects coming online mid 2020’s when LNG  Canada will be online.

This anticipated future glut is a big reason Chevron is trying to shed its stake in Kitimat LNG, the other potential LNG plant on tap for Northern BC. 

Now, the likelihood of another LNG glut in the global market in the mid 2020’s could spell disaster for the LNG Canada partners…or spell disaster for the provincial and federal governments. Let me tell you why.

The Canadian Energy Research Institute issued a report July 2018, on the viability of LNG in Canada, West coast potential projects versus East coast projects.  You can read the full report here: https://ceri.ca/assets/files/Study_172_Full_Report.pdf

From the report:

The cost competitiveness of an LNG plant is in relation to the destination markets. A project with
certain supply costs and transportation costs needs to ensure that the price offered at the
destination market over 20-years will cover those costs. Otherwise, the LNG owners risk a loss.
In this section, the landed costs of LNG in Canada and competing jurisdictions are compared with
prices at the destination markets. Further, the section presents ways to improve cost competitiveness for Canadian projects. ** note, improving cost competiveness = more government subsidies, LY**

Key observations:
1. Western Canada and Eastern Canada LNG landed costs are more expensive than the
current spot price in Japan (for Eastern Canada LNG, northeast Asia is not a priority
market). The difference between Western Canada LNG landed costs and spot price is
$0.80 at the time of writing (May 2018). ** spot price at the time of this report was $8.20..its sitting far lower now at $3.00ish**LY
2. Under an oil-linked contract ( which many Asian buyers prefer), a Western Canada LNG project will need an oil price of
approximately $80 or higher over the life of the project to break-even (contract price is
assumed at 11.5% of Brent contract; break-even costs include a return to investors).
3. The total liquefaction costs of Western Canada LNG (all costs except for natural gas) are
higher than for the US GoM-based project.

Do you see the issue now? These calculations for viability,while approximates, actually included the provincial governments ‘incentives’ aka subsidies, at an LNG price that was much higher than it is now.

The report mentions how governments could make it more competitive by offering more incentives. (I recently explored the amount of lobbying going on by CAPP and other industry groups here : https://lailayuile.com/2020/01/29/lng-lobbyists-policy-why-big-money-is-still-a-very-big-problem-in-bc-politics/ )

The questions surrounding the economics alone are unsettling. BC LNG projects require much higher LNG prices AND an oil price $80 just to break even. To make a profit it would have to be even higher.

This is why those LNG lobbyists are all busy lobbying right now. They want better policy for them and more subsidies to ensure the industry can make money.

It’s even been questioned why LNG Canada would even go ahead with such challenges. Some analysts speculate it’s just a way for LNG Canadas partners to lock down a dedicated gas supply for 40 years. Pretty much on BC taxpayers dime.

Marc Lee touches on this in his dissection of the LNG subsidies given by our current government. I suggest you read it if you haven’t. https://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/BC%20Office/2019/05/CCPA_BC%20Critiquing%20the%20LNG%20Canada%20agreement_FINAL_190506.pdf

Further food for thought on the challenging economics and viability of LNG can be found here, in this Oxford Energy Study: https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Challenges-to-the-Future-of-LNG-NG-152.pdf?v=3e8d115eb4b3

One thing before I go. Boosters keep pushing the save China from air pollution and coal line. Frankly, it’s bunk. Yes, LNG is used overseas and it will continue to be. But coal is very cheap right now and will be used heavily for years to come. Right now Japan is racing to build new coal plants, despite knowing how environmentally unsound it is. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/climate/japan-coal-fukushima.html

And China is not only building more coal plants, it is also financing others in less developed countries who can’t get financing for them anywhere else. 

Any LNG we produce is not going to displace the impact of all these new coal plants overseas.

Now we are in a spot where the ndp government has focused so much on one project and industry just like the BC Liberals did, that zero work has been done to diversify and create resilient northern communities that don’t bust when the resource disappears.

A lot can happen in the next few years. Many countries are moving past LNG right to renewables. Investors are wary and just this week the headlines declared worlds top LNG producer is in trouble.

LNG in BC. Is it really the motherlode…or is it just fools gold? Only time will tell.

*** update Feb 20, 2020.

CGL pipeline has applied for a loan or grant from the feds. In essence taxpayers loaning money to help build a pipeline to LNG Canada, a project that isn’t viable without billions in government subsidies.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2020/02/20/federal-crown-corporation-considering-giving-loan-to-coastal-gaslink-amidst-ongoing-wetsuweten-protests.html

 

24 Comments on “Motherlode or Fools Gold ? 2 Things that will have you questioning the push for BC LNG

  1. Looks like the Georgia Straight’s Charlie Smith hasn’t bought into all the LNG mania

    The “Jump in now before it’s too late! It’s a Gold Rush!” mindset continues to transfix our media and politicians but… if all this does crash who gets stuck paying the bills? .

    https://www.straight.com/news/1361961/who-will-be-hook-if-largest-private-sector-investment-project-canadian-history-hits

    “”The Brattle Group published a nuanced report on the future prospects of LNG back in January 2016—two years and eight months prior to the formal announcement of the project—raising serious concerns about Canada shipping LNG to China, in light of the blitzkrieg competition there from solar and wind energies,” Rifkin writes in his book. “Its reticence should have raised some red flags but apparently was either ignored or not taken seriously.””

    “Meanwhile, Forbes contributor Daniel Araya pointed out in October that China has six of the world’s 10 largest solar-panel manufacturing companies and generates one-quarter of the world’s solar power. It also has four of the top 10 wind-turbine manufacturers.”

    “The International Renewable Energy Agency has said that no country in the world has “put itself in a better position to become the world’s renewable energy superpower than China”.” 

    ““Solar power is also gaining ground in India, according to an article this week in the Wall Street Journal.””

    ““It remains to be seen whether this will bring B.C.’s nascent LNG industry crashing down.””

    The Forbes articles..

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielaraya/2020/01/28/is-americas-fossil-fuel-empire-collapsing/

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielaraya/2019/10/08/the-green-new-deal-jeremy-rifkin-and-the-coming-collapse/#626645984053

    The WSJ article.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/solar-power-is-beginning-to-eclipse-fossil-fuels-11581964338

    • Huh, funny timing on Charlie’s part for this to come out the morning after my post yesterday..lol. Great minds 😉

      It’s a good complement as he covers the solar aspect more in depth. I erred on keeping mine at a readable length for thos with smaller attention spans since LNG pricing isnt a ssxy sell to most….🤣

      • Well golly, Laila, it’s not only you and Charlie who seem to think extravagant LNG investments are becoming a classic fool’s bargain. The mania to buy high then sell low when the market tanks continues.

        Of course it’s not like the article linked here – courtesy IntegrityBC – will ever be shown to those chronically enthusiastic twins – “There’s-No-Such Thing as-Too-Much-Gas!” – Mr Trudeau and Mr. Horgan. Why would posted diagnostic contraindications ever be allowed to affect an LNG policy consistently blind to reality? “No. This parrot is not dead. It is resting!”

        But, bad luck, the inevitable news of downsides is spreading where it hurts LNG futures most. Not here, not in suddenly cautious Qatar, or Egypt. but in China. As a matter of National Security China has decided to avoid LNG dependency The current virus panic? It will pass, As the Forbes articles point out rational fear of being caught in an energy trap will not.

        The OilPrice article? Charlie would love it.

        https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/The-Worlds-Top-LNG-Producer-Is-In-Trouble.html?utm_source=tw&utm_medium=tw_repost

        “International expansion in Australia, Qatar, Mozambique and Egypt, combined with a continuously strong US shale gas export drive, is pushing down prices further. Analysts have warned before that a possible LNG glut could end in tears, but nobody was expecting that the market would also be hit by a demand side shock such as China’s coronavirus. The last couple of weeks, major LNG export cargoes to China have been diverted to other clients or are still looking for a destination in an already woefully oversupplied market.”

        “Major LNG producers such as Qatar or Egypt are feeling the pain already. During Egypt’s EGYPS2020, a major oil and gas conference, participants showed concern about the imminent future of the East Med gas hub, as new LNG export contracts still have not been signed and asking prices are unlikely to be met.”
         
        “Today’s announcement that Qatar has delayed its choice of Western partners for the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) project by several months isn’t going unnoticed. Without direct statements by Qatar Petroleum, sources have stated that the delay decision has been made based on current market fundamentals and the still unclear impact of the Corona virus. Qatar has been fighting an uphill battle as the market has been glutted by US shale gas exports and a drop in Chinese demand.” 

        What to expect? The Twins will have to double down!

        • Some optimistic BS from Royal Dutch Shell here.

          Love how these reporters dont actually question much of what is said to them.
          There are massive issues facing LNG Canada’s viability now and in the future.
          https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-amid-the-coastal-gaslink-conflict-bcs-elusive-natural-gas-boom/

          Amid the Coastal GasLink conflict, B.C.’s elusive natural-gas boom hits government finances hard

          PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 20, 2020UPDATED 1 HOUR AGO

          FOR SUBSCRIBERS

          This was supposed to be the year of LNG for British Columbia, the year that its new export industry started sending billions of dollars in royalties flooding into the province’s coffers, allowing it to pay off its debt and create an energy powerhouse to rival Alberta’s oil sands.

          That was the vision that then-premier Christy Clark touted ahead of the 2013 provincial election, in which she talked about the promise of liquefied natural gas exports to Asia and beyond as an economic breakthrough for B.C., with the takeoff point slated for 2020.

          But the year of LNG has not arrived – far from it. Instead, there has been close to seven years of increasing struggle by B.C.’s natural gas producers simply to stay afloat. The unforeseen renaissance of U.S. energy production, driven by advances in drilling technology, has sent North American gas prices into the basement, making a global oversupply situation that much worse for Canadian producers.

          After seven years, the promise of LNG exports remains just that. A single project, by LNG Canada, is under construction and slated to begin full operation in 2025, assuming that the Coastal GasLink pipeline is completed and connects the shipping facility to the gas fields of northeastern B.C. (Other projects remain in the planning stage, although some are nearing final investment decisions by their proponents.)

          The $6.6-billion Coastal GasLink pipeline is the target of continuing opposition by protesters, including some members of the Wetʼsuwetʼen Nation, backed by most of its hereditary chiefs. But the project, which runs through Wet’suwet’en traditional territories, has garnered support from elected band leaders, as well as other Indigenous band councils along the pipeline route.

          The worst may be yet to come, if the industry cannot find an export outlet beyond North America, since the United States – the traditional export market for Canadian natural gas producers – is rapidly moving toward self-sufficiency, says Bryan Cox, president and chief executive officer of the BC LNG Alliance. “The window is now.”

          A global LNG outlook from Royal Dutch Shell PLC published Thursday bolsters that view. The energy giant says that global LNG supplies grew significantly in 2019, as companies around the world bet on surging demand, driven in part by moves to replace coal-fired power with natural gas. While prices are currently depressed because of the flood of new LNG supply, Shell is predicting that the imbalance will shrink by the middle part of the decade, with gas prices then rising – right around the time that LNG Canada is slated to begin shipments.”

          Um no. Might want to check your BS at the door there sir.

  2. I see Mr. Horgan got a wee tiny little taste of what the First Nations peoples have had to endure through history when those folks where on his land. What portion of the driveway was it. Awhh gee Shucks. Poor thing. He sure was a different boy in opposition. What’s gone around for well over a century seems to be coming around. Much more First Nations people from across Canada seem to be backing the hereditary Chiefs than expected.

    • Personally I don’t agree with anyone banging on a politicians front door( they did, that’s when Ellie called him back home), anymore than I agree with RCMP arresting and removing Indigenous women from their own territory. He ran for office, not her.

      Anyhow, take a look at this.

      CGL applied for a loan from a federal agency to help build the natural gas pipeline that will feed the “cant be built without billions in subsidies” LNG Canada plant.

      Seriously if they can’t afford to build it without a loan, don’t effing build it. Taxpayers shouldnt be subsidising this project!!!

      https://lailayuile.com/2020/02/18/motherlode-or-fools-gold-2-things-that-will-have-you-questioning-the-push-for-bc-lng/

  3. A frigging “loan” to TC Energy to build the CGL pipeline? Are you kidding me?
    And The Star article attached to your update above stated that EDC posts transactions under consideration on its website at least 3o days before entering into a deal. Possible CGL financing was posted Jan 27th so its possible this “loan” could be approved by the end of this month—-a week away.

    Also it’s strange that all of the talk about setting up a meeting to resolve the crisis up north mentions a meeting between the feds and the hereditary chiefs, but not CGL officials. I would think the company should be in attendance to hear the chiefs’ demand that the line route be altered and respond to that point.

    • Agreed. For all we know the money may have been approved and because of the ongoing tensions, they arent admitting it.

      These governments have absolutely bungled Indigenous issues over and over federally and provincially. They have intentionally pitted nation against nation on this issue and many others, creating divisions and conflict even as we speak.

      This was coming for a very long time, the provincial and federal govts knew about this long ago and yet here we are. This Narwhal story is so revealing.

      https://thenarwhal.ca/industry-government-pushed-to-abolish-aboriginal-title-at-issue-in-wetsuweten-stand-off-docs-reveal/

      • Laila and Luigi,

        I’ve forgotten already. Which century did Justin Trudeau recently predict it was?

        I think we’d all be forgiven for not knowing since – despite our PM’s astute calender-watching – many more So Very Last Century scandals are brewing back east.

        But be not afraid. The Rt-Hon Justin has advised Parliament that everyone should just Chill. He is thinking it all over. The Liberal Party opinion choir merely requests that all fretful masses exercise Patience. Kindly look elsewhere while last century’s worst policies sink the country and harm the planet even further..

        To a Politician what could seem more reasonable?

        Yes, it is 2020, another epoch where some amazing demonstrations of political amnesia appear to be incapacitating our pols. Despite shouting that Reconciliation is\was Canada’s Top Priority has anyone seen a Plan?

        Has everyone in Ottawa forgotten that there’s a disastrous Climate Emergency to address? Do both crises require more than speeches about “Taking Things Seriously” [meaning what?] and “Working Very Hard” [meaning what?]?

        Well, golly, it seems that 42 rude, impatient, uppity, know-it-all Nobel Prize Laureates have called on our illustrious Boy Wonder to actually accomplish something, like a halt to fossil fuel projects in Canada. They demand drastic medicine, unlike telling our wonderfully pliant investment agency to pump even more tax payer billions into exacerbating our crises.

        http://priceofoil.org/2020/02/21/nobel-laureates-trudeau-reject-teck/

        “(Ottawa) Over 40 Nobel Laureates, including chemist Roald Hoffmann, economist Edmund Phelps, activist Jody Williams, and Canadian writer Alice Munro are calling on Prime Minister Trudeau and Deputy Prime Minister Freeland to do the right thing for our shared climate and reject the Teck Frontier tar sands mine.”

        “Their letter, signed by Nobel Prize recipients from the fields of physics, peace, literature, chemistry, economics, and medicine, makes clear that there is no place for new fossil fuel production in the current climate emergency.”

        “There is enough carbon embedded in already operating oil, gas, and coal fields and mines to take us beyond 2°C , let alone 1.5°C. The implications of this are clear: there is no room for expansion of the fossil fuel sector. There is no room for the Teck Frontier tar sands mine.” 

        What might the cynics anticipate as the authorized response from Mr Trudeau, Ms Freeland and The Liberal Party?

        — “ We are Working Very Hard”`on these files and “ Take These Issues Very Seriously”. What’s that? You expect to see a Plan? Never! Neo-Liberal Blind-Faith-Based Economic Theology does not permit making contingency plans! Ask Jody and Jane (Wilson-Raybould and Philpott) Compassionate Liberals must never tolerate Heresy! —

        Meanwhile as of approx 2 PM Pacific Coast Time, Friday, the 40 Laureates story has appeared twice. With the second time here…

        https://capforcanada.com/40-nobel-prize-winners-demand-trudeau-cancel-alberta-oil-sands-project/

        Curious. Coverage by all other Canadian networks?

        None whatsoever..

        42 Nobel winners really aren’t worth a few pixels coverage or a daub of printer`s ink? Go figure..

  4. Looks like Horgan will not have any open ended discussions about the pipeline issues. ZERO basically on his and his scummy corporate masters project. The media morons and radio asses won’t talk about the possibility of a reroute of the line on their shows that the chiefs have brought up time and a again. I’m kinda thinking they don’t want too. This may give rise to a slight possibility to the beginning of compromise. But thats to nice and easy for some of the media. The ratings might not be good unless there’s adversity animosity and war between groups. Hell there’s hardly ever if any talk about the crimes that the big investors like Petronas, Shell Petrochina, Siinopec have been involved in around the planet with brutal governments and no questioning why our own politicans allow it. Wheres that conversation. I know some outfits do like the Tyee. But for most. Nope. I know its from 2012 but but still timely and fresh.
    thetyee.ca>News>2012/02/18>Sinopec

  5. All of this won’t change a thing just like Site C didn’t stop. Everyone is contributing greatly here and are good courageous people, but personally i feel it’s just a wheel spinning and the bike not going anywhere. But that’s just the way see it right now. Have a great weekend and many good days in the future. Bye for now.

    • Maybe this one post, or this blog, or me or any of us on our own won’t change these things…but everytime a person speaks out and speaks up it makes others feel more courageous to speak up too.

      And that my friend,can work wonders.

      https://www.google.ca/amp/s/nationalpost.com/news/politics/teck-frontier-mine-alberta-oilsands/amp

      Teck shelves project temporarily.

      Site c didnt get stopped because too many ndp members were willing to stay silent on that issue when it mattered and the chips were down. Hard truth but a truth nonetheless. I recall a couple boosters on Twitter who angrily guaranteed Horgan wouldnt approve it. Then stayed silent when he did.

      Many of those same members have been utterly gutted by the direction Horgan and caucus took on LNG, outdoing Clark and making many of them look foolish for being so rabid against Horgan critics. Many have now spoken out against his actions and the words hes used and his disregard. Many now realize that in many ways environmentally, we are still going in the same direction as Clark was.

      And like so many Canadians, at some point silence becomes complicity.

      A lot of people are taking note across the country,of this. Of indigenous rights. Of climate change. And choosing not to be silent any longer.

      Let’s see how fast this Coastal Gaslink pipeline gets rerouted now before LNG Canada partners decide to pull out and walk away too.

  6. February 24.

    Assuming you have an ample supply of Gravol nearby select any link below.

    Whatever else might transpire today it is Not a Good News Day for TECK PR. Or government regulation.

    At last count the number of unfortunate TECK stories listed in Dermod Travis’ IntegrityBC is 10.

    Samples?

    In this undated report the TECK name appears 45 times.
    https://elkvalleycoal.com/canada-suppressing-data-on-coal-mine-pollution-say-u-s-officials/

    “Frustrated U.S. representatives on a commission tasked with protecting the quality of water flowing across the Canada/U.S. border have gone public with claims that Canadian commissioners are refusing to accept scientific data that shows an increase in selenium pollution from B.C.’s Elk Valley coal mines.”

    “Two U.S. commissioners on the International Joint Commission have released a letter to the U.S. State Department that says Canada’s three representatives on the commission will not endorse a recent report that shows risks to aquatic life and humans from selenium pollution from five Teck Resources Ltd. coal mines.”

    “It’s a highly unusual move, suggesting a rift among the usually non-partisan representatives of the international body.”

    “The polluted water, which leaches from massive amounts of waste rock at Teck’s metallurgical coal mines, flows into the Elk and Fording Rivers in B.C., then into the Koocanusa Reservoir which straddles the border and finally into the U.S. Kootenai River before curling back up into Canada at Creston”.

    In this 2017 report TECK is fined $1.4M for the release of toxic effluent
    https://www.columbiavalleypioneer.com/news/teck-coal-pleads-guilty-to-2014-fish-kill/

    Earlier in 2013 TECK is fined $210,000 for releasing sodium hydroxide in Columbia River
    https://biv.com/article/2013/11/teck-metals-fined-210000-for-releasing-sodium-hydr

    A 2016 Globe and Mail article states that TECK Metals was fined $3.4-million for polluting B.C.’s Columbia River
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/teck-metals-fined-34-million-for-polluting-bcs-columbia-river/article28962151/

    More bad news from CTV in 2019?
    https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/u-s-senators-say-canadian-pollution-putting-cross-border-rivers-in-danger-1.4470233

    “Selenium levels in the Elk and Fording rivers are 70 times those in the Flathead River, which doesn’t get runoff from Teck’s five mines.”

    “University of Montana researchers have found Elk River stations near the mines are reporting levels 50 times what’s recommended for aquatic health. Near the city of Fernie, B.C., readings are 10 times that level.”
    In 2017, Teck was fined $1.7 million over the selenium.

    The CBC? It was 2019 when…
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/canadian-mining-company-liable-for-american-pollution-1.5180818

    “The U.S. Supreme Court will not hear Teck’s appeal of the case brought by the Colville Confederated Tribes (CCT) in Washington State.”

    “The CCT successfully argued Teck used the Columbia River in southeastern B.C. as a “convenient disposal facility for its wastes.” 

    “This is a battle that the Colville Tribes has been fighting for at least 20 years,” said CCT Chairman Rodney Cawston.”

    “The Supreme Court’s decision to not hear Teck’s appeal leaves a previous ruling in place, awarding over $8 million in legal costs to the tribes. It also makes Teck responsible for cleaning up the damage from decades of pollution.”

    The Star criticizes Mr Trudeau’s “Hazy Climate Policy”
    https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2020/02/23/teck-crisis-averted-on-frontier-project-but-federal-climate-plan-is-not-coming-fast-enough-for-investors-or-environmentalists.html

    Further down the page it’s the 2020 Globe again…
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/article-teck-resources-says-it-faces-11-billion-hit-on-frontier-oil-sands/

    “Teck Resources considers eventual oil sands exit as federal decision on Frontier mine looms”

    Next it’s the 2020 CBC
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/teck-frontier-1.5473370

    “Teck withdraws application for $20B Frontier oilsands mine.”
    Announcement came hours after Alberta said it struck deal with First Nations on project

    The 2020 Globe again…
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/article-teck-resources-pulls-application-for-frontier-oil-sands-mine/?utm_medium=Referrer:+Social+Network+/+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links

    “Teck Resources Ltd. is pulling its application for the massive Frontier oil sands mine in Alberta, citing the need for Canada to finalize its climate-change policies and determine how resource development fits within them.”

    “After years of companies shelving investment in the oil and gas sector, high hopes were pinned on the massive heavy-oil mine for its potential direct economic impact as well as the broader signal it would send to the market.”

    For final and perfect irony there`s this item dated Jan 21..
    https://elkvalleycoal.com/teck-named-to-2020-global-100-most-sustainable-corporations-list/

    “Teck Resources Limited has been recognized as one of the 2020 Global 100 Most Sustainable Corporations by Corporate Knights. Corporate Knights are the Voice for Clean Capitalism, the most sustainable corporations keep upping their clean revenue. Teck was the top-ranked company in the Metal Ore Mining category and the only mining company included on the list.

    “At Teck, being socially and environmentally responsible is foundational to our success and an important part of who we are as a company,” said Don Lindsay, President and CEO. “Our employees drive our continued commitment to operating responsibly and producing the materials essential to building a better quality of life for people around the world.”

    “The Global 100 companies are selected from all publicly traded companies with annual revenues of US$1 billion or more. Companies were evaluated based on a range of sector-specific sustainability metrics, such as clean revenue percentage, water, energy and carbon productivity, and safety performance, as well as financial strength and business sustainability. More information can be found here”
    .
    “Teck has also been named one of the Best 50 Corporate Citizens by Corporate Knights for the past 13 years and has been named to the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index (DJSI) for the last 10 years and in 2019 was the top-ranked mining company on both the World and North American Index for DJSI”
    .
    “Go to www.teck.com/responsibility to learn more about Teck’s commitment to responsible resource development.”

    • Oh dear, must you burst the Conservative bubble in which Teck saves the world?? 🤣👌🏻

      Ah well. Guess they never heard of

      http://www.ironandearth.org

      Real people, real workers, really concerned about good jobs AND a good healthy planet for all our kids.

  7. Laila..

    About that Conservative Bubble.

    “The Large Print Giveth. And The Small Print… Talketh Away.” So sayeth Tom Waits.

    The large print? Like the worst imaginable advertising it is meant to proclaim Joyous Benefits. “Everyone’s a Winner! Jobs!Jobs!Jobs! Bargains Galore! Reconciliation Forever! Stronger than Dirt! Whiter Than White!”

    The small print? It is small for awful reasons.

    Recently however the financial press has allowed speculation about the not-really-so-sudden economic dilemma faced by industry zealots still determined to build pipelines, erect an enormous dam where none is needed, send massive amounts of LNG and Bitumen to an indifferent Asia, teach the nation’s families and their colleagues to line dance on quicksand, and most important – ignore Greta Thunberg, .

    Despite strenuous appeals to such rigour there seems to be a contrary trend emerging: Continuous Due Diligence.

    https://www.news10.com/news/investors-abandon-constitution-pipeline-natural-gas-project/

    “ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) — In a major victory for environmentalists, investors are canceling plans for a nearly $1 billion natural gas pipeline project that would have run from Pennsylvania through New York and into New England.”

    “Proposed in 2013, the Constitution Pipeline faced legal challenges and consistent opposition from ecological conservationist groups.”

    “A spokeswoman from Duke Energy says that the economics of the 124-mile-long Constitution Pipeline project changed, so the investment is no longer justified. Duke partnered with the Williams Cos., Cabot Oil and Gas, and Alta Gas.”

    I see. It was “the economics” that didn’t work? Monday Bloomberg suggested the following..

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/-nail-in-the-coffin-era-of-big-oil-sands-mines-may-be-over?srnd=premium-canada

    “The cancellation of Teck Resources Ltd.’s Frontier project in northern Alberta — which envisaged producing more crude than OPEC member Gabon — epitomizes the struggles of an industry that has already seen most foreign investors flee. It’s not clear that any other proposed mine would be able to clear the hurdles that felled Frontier in the years to come, possibly spelling the end of an era of megaprojects that transformed North America’s energy landscape by turning Canada into the top foreign crude supplier to the U.S.”

    “This may be the nail in the coffin,” said Laura Lau, who helps manage C$2 billion ($1.5 billion) in assets at Brompton Corp. in Toronto. “I would expect some smaller projects would have a better chance going through.”

    Another explanation? Evidence that highly selective corporate number-crunching might no longer faithfully support extravagant wastes of public money in “projects” has been provided by people like um…Laila Yuile, Norman Farrell, Dermod Travis, Bob Malkin. And so forth..

    The problem underlying what may amount to a voluntary Paradigm Shift? Demand.

    With too much demand those trying to dominate it can over-produce and create a glut, stall, shrivel and croak.

    When demand is running away from whatever Bubble Believers might want to sell, is doubling down to recover sunk costs safe? Is beating a dead horse, disemploying millions and hiring robotic replacements, baking the books, property-flipping, downsizing, rightsizing, attending seminars, outsourcing, privatizing, looking for a nice tax haven to hide revenue – really helpful in the long run if there is no long run as a result?

    To grossly over-simplify via a feeble archaic example: is it sensible to ramp up Buggy Whip production [fossil fuels] at the same time an expanding market for Horseless Carriages [Green Off Grid Tech] offers unfairly attractive profit options to people with big money to invest?

    If our Investment Herd does wake up, or already has, experiences sober second thoughts, and flocks to buy what sells itself – clean air, clean water, clean cities, clean jobs, clean planet, healthy kids and so on – how many people or how few are necessary to nudge our captains of industry and goverment away from colliding with that behemoth Iceberg: demand?

    Nudges.. hints about long term self interest. Blogs and emails, linked to reports the investor cults would otherwise never know existed,

    Please advise…

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