I spent some time over Christmas break catching up on all things #bcpoli, since I normally have very little time to do so. ( This is why it’s been one seasonal blog post a year, since I left the #bcpoli commentator scene) But I was moved to write when it became clear the public should be paying more attention to the items I’ve noted below.
I was not surprised to see a wealth of stories regarding ‘unprecedented’ drought conditions at BC’s biggest reservoirs, an alleged anomaly that means BC Hydro has to import more expensive electricity to meet our demands right now. It’s been a pretty startlingly warm year for friends up north and in the interior. But I was surprised to see a lack of reaction to those stories. One story reported BC Hydro was asking people to curtail their energy use in the colder months because there is such a strain on production.
“B.C. Hydro is encouraging customers to reduce their power use during colder months as unprecedented drought conditions strain electricity production, prompting the utility to bring in power from out of province.
It means customers will see electricity rates go up in 2024.
B.C. Hydro has imported 10,000 gigawatt hours so far in 2023 — about a fifth of the province’s energy needs — at a cost of about $450 million, according to spokesperson Kevin Aquino.”
– CBC News
It is very concerning that we are importing this much electricity, in a province renowned for our water supply…Except this isn’t the first ‘unprecedented drought’ by far for BC Hydro.
In July of 2019 I wrote of record low inflows to several reservoirs due to a multi year drought spanning 2018-2019. This older post is quite relevant: https://lailayuile.com/2019/07/02/an-update-on-site-c-bc-lng-when-climate-change-reveals-the-bc-ndp-vision-was-nothing-but-a-mirage/
Reported by BC Hydro at that time, the Williston reservoir had reached a record low : https://www.princegeorgecitizen.com/local-news/this-northern-bc-reservoir-saw-record-low-water-inflows-last-fall-1388625
BC Hydro had actually released a report on the impact of that drought earlier in 2019 and how they planned to respond to it. https://www.bchydro.com/content/dam/BCHydro/customer-portal/documents/news-and-features/report-generational-challenge–bcs-generation-system.pdf.
But looking at the years since then, extremes of all kinds are now a routine occurrence in BC weather. We have seen the heat dome that changed everything. Record cold temps in a prior winter. Onshore hurricane force winds are now commonplace for north island and the north central coast. Which is why I shook my head reading this report from the Globe and Mail : https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-drought-conditions-force-bc-hydro-to-rely-on-power-purchases/
This years drought isn’t unprecedented when you look back through recent years, and is very likely to happen again. And again. And again. Hydro would have us believe Site C will take away the pressure when it comes online, but is that actually true?
I’m not a Hydro expert, but if the Williston Reservoir inflows and level are so low that the dam is unable to generate electricity, how much more power IS Site C actually going to bring online downstream, in similar conditions? And factoring in that the cost has doubled since 2017 from $8 billion to $16 billion – and is now a year delayed, I fully expect that number to rise. What will be the cost to future hydro customers – our kids and grandkids – who ultimately will experience the rate hikes needed to pay the debt down on that dam. There is already a rate hike coming in early 2024.
The glory days of consistently reliable BC hydropower are gone, particularly when industry water licenses and contracted obligations impact how low reservoir levels are allowed to fall in some regions. For example, the Williston reservoir has water licenses for operations in the area that prevent the reservoir from being drawn below a certain level.
A friend in the area recently shared these aerial photos with me to illustrate how low the banks are, and how dry tributaries leading to the reservoir are.
Low reservoir levels behind BC Hydro dams are not only resulting in lack of electricity generation elsewhere in BC, they are impacting communities in the Columbia River Basin in other ways as well.
Residents there are seeing not only the visible effects of drought, but this coupled with obligations under the Columbia River Treaty that allow the reservoir to fall to very low levels, have resulted in lost property value and declining tourism appeal when there is a long, dirty, ugly, one kilometre walk between shore and waters edge. https://www.revelstokereview.com/news/high-and-dry-changing-water-levels-on-arrow-lakes-4539891
The only true certainty for BC Hydro at this point, is the uncertainty of future reliability of hydropower in BC, due to the challenge of predicting future weather patterns for all regions of BC. The weather is so unpredictable now and will only become more challenging.
While BC Hydro continues to spin how unprecedented this current drought is, the reality is that the only thing truly unprecedented here, is BC Hydro’s inability to adapt and build resilience in the grid as fast as they should have been.
And I am not the only one who thinks so.
Evan Pivnik, a program manager for Clean Energy Canada had this to say recently:
” Pivnick said that as the Earth warms, historical climate data has become increasingly less reliable as an indicator of future climate behaviour, posing a challenge for utilities trying to estimate energy availability and demands.
“We can’t really look back and say what happened in the last five years will be an indicator of what we can expect,” he said.
“The number-one thing that our systems will need to be able to adapt to and wrestle with is uncertainty,” he said.”
“Pivnick said B.C. has “absolutely” been complacent in thinking about how to plan and integrate new energy sources into the grid, adding that B.C. “should anticipate that it turns to a far larger mix of resources” like wind, solar, batteries and distributed energy systems.
“Now have an urgency to get on with reforms and how we plan and integrate new energy sources,” he said.
What exactly is taking so long?
The process to even begin a call for clean projects doesn’t even begin until 2024, let alone get them to completion.https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2023EMLI0036-000941
I did see another really interesting bit of news in my online travels, one many don’t seem to be aware of.
Powerex, the separate trading entity of BC Hydro that buys and sells electricity, recently signed a deal to provide the Microsoft Data Center with reliable renewable energy and take the surplus from their other renewable suppliers.
How this impacts the grid supply overall in BC, remains to be seen, since it includes a plan to bring online a wind project in 2024:
“The long-term agreement is the first for Powerex’s 24×7 Clean Load Service product that was launched in 2021. Powerex primarily markets BC Hydro’s surplus hydroelectricity, but under the deal with Microsoft, the two companies will bring more renewable capacity on line in the Pacific Northwest, starting with a 200-MW wind project that has an expected on-line date of December 2024.
“As the output from Microsoft’s contracted renewable resource portfolio grows, Powerex’s 24×7 Clean Load Service will increasingly offer a battery-like service,” Tom Bechard, president and CEO of Powerex, said in a prepared statement. “During hours that Microsoft’s contracted renewable resources produce more electricity than the data center can use, we will take the surplus renewable power, allowing hydro generation to be reduced and water to be conserved for later use. This will enable clean deliveries back to the data center in later hours, when Microsoft’s contracted renewable resources produce less electricity than the data center need.”
But I have questions.
Why does this make me nervous?
Should we be locked into selling our energy as a premium product when there is a surplus, while overall result is a decline in generation?
Shouldn’t we be looking for energy self sufficiency to prevent any scenario like the California energy crisis? Rolling blackouts are still a thing, although not as often as they used to be in the sunshine state.
This kind of deal raises so many questions that should have been put to public scrutiny. What happens when – not if- the obligations to provide 24/7 power to Microsoft are at odds with our provincial needs ? Or our self sufficiency? Why are these kinds of deals not subject to BCUC oversight? I’ve seen very little coverage of this deal beyond energy publications.
It all makes me yearn for the good old days when there was a really good plan for BC’s energy supply. One that would protect communities, allow for more resilience of supply and allow BC Hydro to move beyond hydro power-something that is clearly critical as global temperature increases. It was called Power BC. This page no longer exists but it remains on my website for posterity. And hopefully a reminder of what we can and need to do. ( Another question, why was the decision made to not put in another turbine at Revelstoke? Climate change ?)
Norm Farrell said it best recently: You couldn’t stop solar if you wanted to…https://in-sights.ca/2023/12/19/you-couldnt-stop-solar-if-you-wanted-to-stop-solar/.
We have ample opportunity in BC for alternatives that would increase community resilience, especially for rural communities most likely to get cut off when forest fire season or storms take out infrastructure. And those who can afford to invest in solar to be self sufficient, take that load off our grid. It should be encouraged and supported widely.
We can’t stop what is happening with our climate, but we are obligated to prepare for it in a way that fosters self sufficient communities and doesn’t put the burden of cost on the average persons shoulders. This is often forgotten in policy.
** Energy poverty is still a very real issue in BC for seniors, middle and low income residents who sometimes are forced to choose to pay for electricity or food-asking them to install a heat pump or convert a gas furnace is just a dream with many incomes, fixed or not. Offering low cost loans isn’t an option for people who can’t afford even a tiny payment. Let’s not forget this.
Westcoast Views with Laila Yuile 
Glad to see this article from Laila but I am left wondering why energy topics don’t interest corporate media except when they choose to publish press releases from unreliable sources, including BC Hydro and the many people regularly depositing cheques from the utility.
WAC Bennett pursued an energy policy that guaranteed long-term, low-cost electricity throughout most areas of the province. Bennett railed against socialism but understood that a public monopoly was best able to meet our needs affordably. Of course, that required BC Hydro be managed competently and overseen by independent regulators.
Sadly, that has not been the case since BC Liberals decided electricity production was a way to stuff riches into the pockets of favoured friends. This was accomplished by issuing secret IPP purchase contracts worth tens of billions of dollars and by proceeding with Site C despite less destructive and far cheaper alternatives.
Since the BC NDP has taken a giant step to the right side of the political spectrum, I assume that when large new wind farms are constructed in the next decade, like other private power sources, they will be mostly owned outside the province and we will continue to export money that should be circulating inside British Columbia.
In 2018, BC Hydro changed operating policies to discourage customers from installing solar power systems that would feed surplus power into the grid. It did not affect many customers five years ago but showed the company’s distaste for energy solutions that didn’t involve spending tens of billions of public dollars.
Instead of spending $20 billion or so for the riskiest and most expensive electricity supply in North America, BC Hydro could have been developing wind, solar, tidal, and geothermal systems. We already have large-scale energy storage systems at our many hydroelectric reservoirs.
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I didn’t think I’d find any further information on British Columbia droughts, but …
“Find the latest information and bulletins on drought in B.C.”
Maps of drought in B.C.
Fact sheet: Drought affects your well (PDF)
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/air-land-water/water/drought-flooding-dikes-dams/drought-information
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So old WACie spent all that money to build his dam and create WillstonLake, destroyed, lives and an enviornment, caused countless people their lives and culture and now the dam lake can’t produce power???? Guess he wasn’t as smart as he thought he was. The old Scored party never was big on education and the Socreds were a government of used car dealers and of course some new car dealers. Was still a teenager when the dam was opened and I knew, from history classes in school that the world changed and rivers went dry, deserts were formed. Read the various articles at the time as the level of the “lake” increased and flooded land, killed the animals and destoryed people’s homes. For years afterwards you’d hear or read about the loggs in the lake. B.C. Hydro was happy though and now the province begins another destructive phase of our history, Site C. Yes, not much changes and some politicians never learn.
the piictures of the area now, doesn’t surprise me. What made people think the droughts of the dirty 30s couldn’t repeat themselves elsewhere? B.C. Hydro and the Socreds destoryed land, animals, humans, etc and now they’re doing it again.
Some where in the files of the government there is a report regarding the impact on Indigenous People of the dams. IRead it about 30 years ago. PrioIr to the building of the Bennett Dam a dam was built in the 1950s which destoryed hundreds of K. of land and the lives of Carrier People, The Kenney dam had disatorous impacts on the Carrier People. When the land was flooded not only was the land flooded but what was on it, including homes, churches, villages, and cementaries. Decades late the bodies in the cementaries were washed up on the shores.
It really is disgusting how bad our history is with the dam, dam building. But it still keeps happening. Nothing changes with B.C. Hydro and the government. (think the Kenny Dam was for Alcan)
Perhaps the droughts are the punishment for our society’s flooding so much of the land in the past and destroying the enviornment and the people who lived in those areas. Won’t be around when the impact of Site C starts, of course it maybe our punishment to have spent $16billion on a dam whiich might be non functional
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So great to hear from you Laila. Such an interesting topic that seems to go to the heart of power in BC. I look at the falling energy production from BC Hydro’s assets over the last 20+yrs and the recent shortfall of on energy of around 20%, and wonder how this can be in a province with legislated “self sufficiency” mandate. The dire effect of drought always seemed so inevitable and obviously preventable.
A solution was telegraphed a few years ago when the NDP decided to try to do away with the self sufficiency mandate. Sonia Furstenau has said that that was a hill she was prepared to die on. Something about basic sovereignty and the folly of relying on a foreign state (in some level of decline). Well gov. seemed to have backed down on removing the clause -and instead just ignored it? (Not sure the timing of all this and how it relates to Horgan’s sea election to break the supply and confidence agreement with the BC Greens).
PowerEx is doubly troubling for me too. In fact the Clean Energy Act states that our legacy hydro system is to be managed for the benefit of BC’ers. The powers that be see to think a dollar from trading is the highest benefit for BC.
But triply troubling for me is the drought in relation to the carbon intensity of hydro power. From my reading of the literature, and discussions with the academics, low reservoir levels mean higher GHG output. We don’t even recognize the intensity of hydropower GHG’s, or the research of the last 20yrs. If we were to take that as seriously as it deserves we would be studying and measuring our system, with the best tools, full time -not wasting as much as a second to mitigate GHG’s. We would be keeping our reservoirs high to keeping the reservoir pressure at depth high to trap the gasses and limit the “ebulition” events. But you “can’t manage what you don’t measure”, and you don’t measure what you don’t want to manage, it seems. Instead of being world leaders in managing reservoirs and generation to be as clean as possible we sell our system for an easy buck to the US..?!
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I just noticed the annual chronometer has clicked over to 2024. So Happy New Year, Laila! It sure is good to hear from you again.
As usual, a convenient time for reminiscence, reflection, and reckoning auspication. Looking back I recall when British Columbia punditry was aflame, fuelled by the governing BC Liberal perfidy, seeming kinda unfair since Canadians had finally gotten rid of Harper’s fifth column in 2015 and things were looking up, if not a little askance.
The BC NDP’s astounding 2013 failure to defeat the cabal of corruption and its poster-girl premier, Christy Clark, left us pessimistic—and the 2017 re-election of a BC Liberal minority for a moment almost despondent—until Fortuna shone upon us with drama befitting the demise of one of the biggest scams since Joseph Trutch deemed BC’s confederation effectively extinguished indigenous nations’ sovereign claims.
The Greens trebled their seats to three, Christy walked to the Governor’s residence to beg for am immediate repeat election, resigning both her leadership and seat in a snit when denied, Bob Plecas volunteered to be Speaker and was immediately booted from the BC Liberal caucus, thus allowing a Green-Dipper alliance (which had voted non-confidence on the very first bill of the new parliament) to be recognized government with a one-seat freeboard which precluded a Dipper Speaker having to break tie votes. Lucky, lucky, lucky!!
Phew! What excitement! Then of course the bitter drama of new Premier John Horgan seeming to break a promise—or at least an unrealistic expectation—and continue, with Green leader Andrew Weaver’s consent, construction of the controversial Site-C Dam, provoking thunder and lightning from black clouds over the new regime. We noted that the more extended the perfidy the harder it eventually bites the backside. Struggling to juggle hot potatoes especially baked by the wily BC Liberals, Horgan did make good a campaign promise to hold an electoral-systems referendum in 2018, BC’s third, replete with caustic partisan propaganda, destined to, again for the third time, confirm voters’ preference for “First-Past-the-Post.”
Bitter? Well, yes, but it hardly bit him. And then sunshine once more burst through recriminatory clouds that had locked BC in perpetual partisan pugilism, probably since the NDP lost its first mandate way back in ‘75–an agonizing 43 years, a whole generation which knew nothing else-until 2018 when many of us hardly seemed to know what to do with partisan tranquility that ensued. It’d exhausted many and the unfamiliar quiet led pundits to sight on an easy, new target, tRumpublicanism, the death-struggle of democracy that distracts us from BC’s relative political peace to this day—and I even include the Tom-foolery during the Covid pandemic, that being more or less equal, everywhere.
I spilled a lot of ink on psephological tumult and partisan parrying up until this point and was unwittingly rewarded by postponing analysis of the Orange-Spray-Goo-Tan until its expected denouement—that is, little expecting it to still exist until this very day, nor creep across the border to infect the partisan right here in Canada. For that phenomenon I whiled away my time focusing on the bifurcation of psedoCondominism, mainly in Alberta, the most dramatic political theatre in our country today. But, for BC, it’s been a refreshing break.
I knew it wouldn’t last. 2024 will see the confluence of “known knowns”, “unknown knowns” &c. I expect to blow the Prairie dust off my saddle and Wet Coast rust off my spurs because of the unknown known of an early federal election and the known knowns of, first, BC’s provincial election followed soon after by the guaranteed craziest US presidential election ever—and that’s saying a lot after 2016 and 2020. Distraction from distractions is a known known.
And at least in one of those contests the matter of BC’s most venerable—and now vulnerable—public enterprise will loom large. I’m hoping you will continue to give us more of your sage observations over the next nine to ten months of pregnant political potential so BC Hydro won’t get lost in the political smoke and partisan mirrors that are approaching through atmospheric rivers, droughts,and wildfires.
Until then, bless you, and all the best in the New Year,
Scotty on Denman.
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It has been a year and now you have returned, this is good news!
Climate change is a fickle subject for government because they want to be seen doing something when they are not.
The carbon tax is merely a placebo to hide government inaction as it seems they are doing something when they are not – a ponzi scheme at best. it is a bureaucratic adage that if you tax the people enough, they believe you are doing something when you are not.
The same goes for electric cars. Electric cars are having problems but our mainstream media, which has become a version of Pravda and Fox News North, are sitting on many stories about electric car fires, especially transit buses which are brewing up like a Russian tanks.
Also as the cost of electric cars and the limited range only make them suitable for urban or suburban use and even then most are not affordable for us common fold to buy.
There is no reason not to include a solar/wind generator for new households, as in Europe to mitigate power consumption, such devises are readily available and are much cheaper than heat pumps. But not in BC, as government is in league with both Hydro and Fortis to ensure no competition.
Sad to say, Eby’s NDP (Vision Vancouver Provincial) is worse than Horgan’s NDP, which was only slightly better than Christie clark’s Liberals which as somewhat worse worse than Campbell’s Liberals which were worse than Clark’s NDP which was about the same as Van der Zalm’s Social credit which was slightly worse than Bill Bennett’s Social Credit.
How long we reach the bottom of the barrel is anyone’s guess but it is coming soon!
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